You heard it here first.  The Tea Party is going nowhere.  It will fade into nothing.  Provided, that is, that it does not make some changes and become something different than what it is today.

As best as I can tell, the Tea Party is based on protest.  Specifically, they started out as a protest against the bailout and, then the stimulus.  More generally, they are a protest against taxes, government spending and national debt.  These are all good things.  However, being defined as against something does not bode well for long term existence.

The Tea Party, as it is currently defined is too narrow in their definition.  Can a movement really make a difference by only caring about a single issue?  I would say probably not.  Do people really vote based on single issues?  Issues might factor into their decision, but other factors could easily trump single issues.

The Tea Party could transform itself into some sort of lobbyist group similar to the NRA.  In this mode, they could pool their resources and attempt to influence congress.  They could support candidates and try to engage the voting public and their members like Move On does.

The Tea Party may stir up some mud in the short term.  They have had mixed results in elections.  The first real test will be November 2010.  We will see what happens from then.